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Response of Commercial Banking Industry to Selected Historical Crises
|
| Banking Industry Indicator |
Asset Growth (%) |
Deposit Growth (%) |
Loan Growth (%) |
Return on Average Assets (%) |
CPI Growth Rate (%) |
| Disasters/Crises |
Date |
Prior Year End |
Subsequent Year End |
Three Years After Subsequent Year End |
Prior Year End to Subsequent Year End |
Three Years Following Subsequent Year End |
Prior Year End to Subsequent Year End |
Three Years Following Subsequent Year End |
Prior Year End to Subsequent Year End |
Three Years Following Subsequent Year End |
Prior Year End to Subsequent Year End |
Average over Three Years Following Subsequent Year End |
Prior Year End to Subsequent Year End |
Three Years Following Subsequent Year End |
| Pearl Harbor |
12/08/41 |
12/31/40 |
12/31/41 |
12/31/44 |
8.64 |
75.22 |
9.38 |
81.14 |
15.57 |
0.44* |
0.59 |
0.56 |
5.00 |
19.73 |
| N. Korean Invasion |
06/25/50 |
12/31/49 |
12/31/50 |
12/31/53 |
7.39 |
14.55 |
7.20 |
14.06 |
21.92 |
30.00 |
0.67 |
0.59 |
1.26 |
10.79 |
| Cuba Missile Crisis |
10/23/62 |
12/31/61 |
12/31/62 |
12/31/65 |
6.71 |
26.83 |
5.46 |
26.80 |
12.01 |
42.28 |
0.82 |
0.79 |
1.00 |
4.30 |
| Kennedy Assassinated |
11/22/63 |
12/31/62 |
12/31/63 |
12/31/66 |
5.34 |
29.22 |
5.05 |
28.47 |
11.36 |
38.62 |
0.79 |
0.79 |
1.32 |
5.88 |
| Arab Oil Embargo |
10/17/73 |
12/31/72 |
12/31/73 |
12/31/76 |
12.87 |
not available |
10.49 |
21.90* |
18.77 |
17.48* |
0.85 |
0.79 |
6.22 |
28.15 |
| Nixon Resignation |
08/08/74 |
12/31/73 |
12/31/74 |
12/31/77 |
9.59* |
26.55 |
9.51* |
24.48 |
10.29* |
21.41* |
0.79 |
0.81 |
11.04 |
22.92 |
| Crash of 87 |
10/19/87 |
12/31/86 |
12/31/87 |
12/31/90 |
2.01* |
12.98* |
1.22* |
18.20 |
4.04 |
15.16 |
0.09 |
0.59 |
3.65 |
15.05 |
| Desert Storm Begins |
01/16/91 |
12/31/90 |
12/31/91 |
12/31/94 |
1.22* |
16.90 |
1.12* |
2.50* |
-2.82* |
14.56 |
0.53 |
1.09 |
4.21 |
8.81 |
| Soviet Coup |
08/19/91 |
12/31/90 |
12/31/91 |
12/31/94 |
1.22 |
16.90 |
1.12 |
2.50 |
-2.82 |
14.56 |
0.53 |
1.09 |
4.21 |
8.81 |
| Asian Crisis |
10/07/97 |
12/31/96 |
12/31/97 |
12/31/00 |
9.54 |
24.4 |
6.31 |
19.84 |
5.63 |
28.36 |
1.23 |
1.22 |
2.29 |
7.29 |
Average Growth in Years
Spanning and Following
Each Crisis
Industry Average 1934-2000 (as data is available) |
7.03 |
28.33 |
6.19 |
26.38 |
10.75 |
23.15 |
0.71 |
0.80 |
4.00 |
13.66 |
| 7.49 |
23.87 |
7.18 |
23.19 |
9.03 |
30.23 |
0.76 |
0.76 |
4.00 |
12.91 |
Notes: * entries indicate when growth rate was less than CPI.
Average growth in non-crisis years was: Assets - 7.57%, Deposits - 7.33%, Loans - 8.75%
Average non-crisis year return on assets was 0.77 percent;
Average non-crisis year CPI growth was 4.00 percent; |
